Archive for the ‘ Uncategorized ’ Category

BBC tries to stoke racial tensions in Scotland

My letter of complaint:

sectionNo10

Dear Sir / Madam,

On Tuesday 10th of March the BBC website reported on an opinion poll commissioned by the BBC into attitudes to immigration in Scotland. The article, entitled “BBC poll suggests 64% of Scots want immigration reduced”, can be found here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31800374

The BBC guidelines on opinion polls clearly state “We should not headline the results of an opinion poll unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it”.

The guideline exists for an excellent reason, which is that it is not the BBC’s role to determine the political questions of the day, but rather to report on them.

This is especially egregious behaviour in a tense pre-election context. I find it hard to imagine what the BBC hoped to achieve by commissioning this poll in the first place.

Yours
Alistair Davidson

[UPDATE: Scotland 2015, the BBC’s flagship current affairs show, is following up on this story by inviting UKIP on to debate the main Scottish parties, except the Greens.]

[UPDATE 2: And “the debate will continue” on Morning Call tomorrow. Joy!]

The Thirled Way

Scotland, Class and Nation

A Fate Worse than Debt

Labour’s Class Problem

If I learned one thing from the independence referendum, it is that Scottish identity is deeply entwined with class. In the final delirious days of the campaign a panic gripped upper-middle class Scotland – finance workers and the gentry would shout at Yes campaigners in the street, while on spontaneous demonstrations (labelled “fascistic” by one Herald journalist) people sang football songs.

There was a genuine terror among Scotland’s privileged that they would be subject to a democracy, while a matching sense of hope and possibility propelled Scotland’s least privileged onto the streets.

So it is little wonder that Labour finds itself in terrible, terrible trouble. In fact it is fair to say the the SNP, not Labour, is now the party of the Scottish working class.

A new Ipsos Mori poll (apparently conducted twice, because they didn’t believe their results the first time) has the SNP on an incredible 52% to Labour’s 23%. Breaking the details down by class paints a dramatic picture.

Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 23.28.02

Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 23.28.19Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 23.28.23 Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 23.28.09  Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 23.28.13

Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 22.09.05

Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 22.09.10

Worried about the #indyref polls? Read this.

I’ve seen a number of people worry about the newest Survation poll, which has Yes behind No by 6 points, no change on their last poll.

There is no need to worry about any individual poll.

A typical opinion poll surveys around 1000 people.

If those 1000 people were chosen with perfect randomness from among all of Scotland, and were all honest, there would be 19-1 odds of the real gap being within 6 points either way of the numbers reported by the polling company.

So if Survation say there is a 47% Yes, 53% No, what they mean is that there is probably 44% – 50% Yes and 50% – 56% No.

A lot of things can go wrong with polls. People lie to polling companies. The limited panels some polling companies use may not reflect the country accurately.

Survation, ICM, YouGov and Panelbase all use volunteer internet panels. ICM and YouGov both probably have far larger numbers of volunteers than Panelbase and Survation, which makes it easier for them to reflect the real population.

TNS and Ipsos Mori are especially interesting, because TNS door-knock and Ipsos Mori phone landlines.

When you take into account the uncertainty, this 6% No lead is really just a neck-and-neck poll the same as YouGov’s 2% Yes lead, TNS’s dead heat, and Panelbase’s 4% No lead.

Polls will go up and down. All that is left for Yessers to do now is door-knock, leaflet, run stalls – anything and everything to persuade people and turn them out to vote on the day. If you can, make sure you register with your local Yes group to do Get Out the Vote on polling day.

oimg

Eckenaccio

%d bloggers like this: